So I have compiled a preview the Obama-Putin meeting on sidelines of the 06.17.13-06.18.13 G-8 summit in Northern Ireland based on contents of letters that the two president exchanged this spring as well as on statements by senior USG and RFG officials as reported in press .
Bottom-line is that Obama and Putin are likely to replace CTR agreement, issue a CT statement, and announce new VP-PM format for economic cooperation, and, maybe establish a cyber security working group, but no breakthrough on BMD/nuclear arms control should be expected.
See in greater detail below:
Obama and Putin are likely to:
- Announce replacement of the Cooperative Threat Reducation umbrella agreement, which expires on 06.13.13, with a new agreement (or thy may issue a joint statement and defer the new agreement until their summit that will take place just before or during the G-20 summit in St. Pete on12.05-12.06.13).
- Sign off and present a joint statement on CT cooperation (might mention the Boston bombings and Sochi Olympics.
- Announce establishment of a secure video link for communications between the White House and Kremlin.
- Announce resumption of 2X2 format meetings between defense and foreign policy chiefs
- Announce establishment of a new cooperation format that would focus on deepening of economic ties and would be overseen by the U.S. vice president and the Russian prime minister.
- Will admit to no breakthrough on the BMD/nuke cuts bundle, but will vow to continue the dialogue.
Putin and Obama may also:
- Sign off and present a statement or even an agreement on cyber confidence-building measures or event establishment of a bilateral working group on cyber security in the U.S.-Russian Presidential Commission.
- Not clear whether there will be statements/or parts of statements dedicated to Iran, North Korea, Iran or Afghanistan, although it is likely that they will reaffirm for US-Rus plan to hold a Geneva-2 for Syrians and reaffirm need for stability in Afghanistan and need for N. Korea to stop its nuclear weapons program.