Poroshenko’s Peace Plan and Terms of Agreement

Given that Poroshenko is to unveil to public his 14-point peace plan on June 20th, I thought I'd offer an update of what I think the terms of agreement should  look like, so that both Ukraine, Russia and West could live with it.

Terms of Agreement that would have to be codified in Ukrainian constitution and other national laws and international agreements Status
Reaffirmation of Ukraine’s non-bloc status as formulated in its declaration of independence, possibly with great powers acting as guarantors of Ukraine’s neutrality and territorial integrity.[1] Poroshenko, his ministers would only  say Ukraine has no immediate plans to pursue NATO membership, but keep mum on amending constitution
An arrangement, which would allow Ukraine to sign a free trade agreement with EU that would neither damage Ukraine’s trade with Russia nor preclude some sort of an economic association with Russia or Russian-led organization (so not mutually exclusive), but that would prevent Ukraine from re-exporting EU goods to Russia and Russian commodities to EU. Tripartite talks underway on the issue between Ukraine, EU, and Russia. Though Poroshenko has vowed to sign the deal with EU on June 27th, I would expect him to delay if no progress in the tripartite talks as he cannot ignore Russia, which is largest importer of Ukrainian goods and services by far and also largest exporter to Ukraine.
Decentralization, including elections of governors and rights of regions to sign economic, cultural and social cooperation agreements with regions of other countries. Poroshenko has vowed to amend constitution to have regional MPs elect governors and give regions more taxation powers, but has opposed any external ties of regions to other countries
Legal guarantees of rights of all national minorities, commensurate with European Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities, European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages and EU’s best practices in guaranteeing right of minorities  and including the right to be educated in their languages and use these languages in their interaction with authorities. Poroshenko has made promises to honor rights of minorities and status of Russian language, but is yet to specify how he would do that, though he has already refused to amend constitution to reflect the status of the Russian language.
Ceasefire, followed by negotiations with separatists, then full amnesty followed by disarmament of ‘self-defense’ and other unauthorized armed formations with some of them possibly integrated into Ukraine’s National Guard. So far only promised ceasefire, which may reportedly last 10 days, and corridor (which already exists) for fighters to cross into Russia. That’s obviously not enough. Poroshenko should act upon his earlier promises to include moderate separatists into roundtable discussions or have his aides negotiate with them directly, otherwise they won’t lie down arms as long as they control parts of the border to keep help streaming in.


[1] That Poroshenko might be amenable to such an arrangement can be deduced from his intention to spearhead the creation of a new security framework that would replace the Budapest Memorandum (RIA Novosti, 05.26.14) coupled with his reluctance to commit Ukraine to renewing drive for NATO’s membership.
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