Stratfor Predicts Fragmentation of Russia… or Not

So I have skimmed Russia-related parts of Stratfor’s 02.23.15 product “Decade Forecast: 2015-2025.” Stratfor predicts that Russia will fragment by 2025 with parts of it divided between Romania, Poland, Hungary and China so U.S. should be prepared to secure Russian nukes. Or Russia won’t fragment, in which case U.S. should build an alliance stretching to Azerbaijan and deploying forces there to contain Russia.  So never mind that Stratfor analysts cannot make up their minds on whether Russia will fragment or not (if you can’t decide, then at least give some odds for each option), their solution for the latter is to get U.S. commit to security alliances with Russia’s neighbors as far south as Azerbaijan. Will Stratfor analysts be prepared to fight for Azerbaijan if Russia decides to expand there?
See Stratfor forecast’s major points on Russia below or go to their web site to read the whole report.
·       “We do not think the Russian Federation can exist in its current form for the entire decade. …we expect Moscow's authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia.”
o   “The decline of Moscow's power will open the question of who controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed…Washington is the only power able to address the issue.”
o   China “might attempt to take control of Russia's maritime interests if we are correct and Russia fragments.” “
o   “Poland, Hungary and Romania will seek to recover regions lost to the Russians at various points.”
·       “Though we forecast the decline of Russia, Russia poses danger in the short term, particularly with its back against the wall economically. Moreover, whatever we forecast, the United States cannot be certain that Russia will decline and indeed, if it launches a successful expansionary policy, it may not decline.”
o   Russia will seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers.”
o   “The states most concerned — and affected (by Russia’s aggressive behavior)— will be the former satellite states of Central Europe.”
o   United States will “try build an alliance system outside of NATO, from the Baltics to Bulgaria, encompassing as many nations as possible. It will try to involve Turkey in the alliance and have it reach to Azerbaijan.”


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