Why Poroshenko Is Stalling with Impelementation of Minsk-2

I think Poroshenko’s stalling strategy might reflect his reluctance to implement pledges, which would create a strong backlash among nationalists, who played the key role in unseating his predecessor and who are strongly represented in volunteer battalions and parliament. Or he maybe reluctant to implement his part of the deal because he thinks rebels and Moscow will pocket that and renege on their own committment. Or both. However, such a stalling might also be part of a plan to try and build a viable Ukraine on territories, which Kiev firmly controls, while paying lip service to the need to eventually reintegrate rebel-held territories. After all, if Kiev, Moscow and rebels implement their pledges under Minsk-2, then the outcome would be a decentralized Ukraine, which the central government might be unable to steer in the direction of West, as Poroshenko desires. Yes, economic losses incurred by loss of control over parts  of Donetsk and Lugansk are tangible, but maybe they don’t outweigh, in Poroshenko’s view, the benefits of integrating Ukraine into the Western world. That rebel leaders in Donetsk and Lugansk don’t currently have a say in where Poroshenko stirs Ukraine is just one benefit. The other one is that the pro-Russian population of the rebel-held territories do not have a say either: note, how, recent polls that have been conducted by Pew and other respected international pollsters in all of regions of Ukraine, but rebel-held Donetsk and Lugansk, show more than half of respondents favor Ukraine in NATO, whereas previously supporters of such integration were in minority.
Now, of course, Poroshenko knows his stalling may eventually prompt Putin to order resumption of large-scale hostilities, but maybe he is counting that a combination of Ukraine's entrenched and improved military and Western pressure won't let new offensive advance too far and that he can carry out with building a pro-Western Ukraine without Donbass and Crimea.  Or, maybe, he hopes to provoke such an offensive, so that West won't have no choice, but impose greater sanctions and send arms to Ukraine in what would solidify Russia's estrangement from West and pave way for resumption of Cold War, which would require US to take care of any enemies of its enemy as it did in original Cold War.


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